“And now for something completely different” — Monty Python, 1971.

“I find by my calculations, which are according to revealed inspiration, that the sword of death is now approaching us” — Nostradamus: The Prophecies, Preface to Cesar Nostradamus, No. 31, 1503-1566. [Editor Note: N. obviously having a bad day]

I have been struggling to find a way to convey what may be headed our way. We all want to know how and when this thing will end. Early posts emphasized data showing that the pandemic was real. It’s only now that I’m getting a sense of what the data may actually portend. Although we still have a dearth of evidence — incomplete and mixed across very different countries and demographics — there may be enough to muse with foggy foresight how this could play out. With apologies to Nostradamus I present a notion in a series of “quatrains” below.  [Yeah, it’s on the long side (but a fast read) and no, it’s not poetry or even an attempt thereof]

But first, the data:

The number of confirmed U.S. cases currently exceeds 257,000. Trends based on 3rd order trend line continue on track to reach ~650,000 by Easter, and ~2,500,000 by the end of April. Current estimated fatality rate is about 2.57%, corresponding to over 64,000 deaths by April 30. The fatality rate has been steadily increasing over the past week. This is unexpected since we thought that additional testing would reduce the denominator. Reason is unclear at this time. As usual we need more data.

Definition The term “snow day” refers to a day school is cancelled due to heavy snow. Usually accompanied by great jubilation among the young and weary sighs among their elders.

Snow Day 

— Hey, think of it as a long snow day.
They say it’s gonna be a couple weeks.
Netflix?
Let’s try CNN. Dad’s not here.
— Netflix?
I guess so. Popcorn?
We’re out.
We should order some.
— NYC. Yeah, I heard. Glad we’re way out here.
They say it’s coming.
Hulu?
Okay.
— Another two weeks?
NYC’s pretty bad.
Let’s order out.
No one’s answering anywhere.
— How about TV?
I’m gonna Kindle for a while.
We out of bread?
I think there’s one in the freezer.

— They say they have a vaccine.
Who?
The guy on the news.
Him? His ads are all over online.
— Is it Saturday?
Thursday. You’ve got to work.
Right.
You should get up.
— Looks like rain.
Pretty gloomy out there.
April showers…
It’s May. Want some coffee?
— Florida’s getting really bad.
What did they think was gonna happen?
Yeah.
Annie’s down there, with her dad.
— We’re okay though. For now, right?
Don’t worry.
I’m not. I just…
Come here…

— Shari just texted me.
Annie?
Her dad.
But he was in good shape.
— I feel bad we couldn’t go.
Me too. She understands.
Her brothers and sister are fighting.
I thought they had a trust.
—- Now what do we do?
I don’t know.
It’s just a furlough though, right?
Sure. They’ll call me back soon.
— You okay? That delivery guy…
He had a mask.
Still.
I’m careful.
— Fauci says another month.
It’s been two months already.
Well that’s what his Facebook says.
Too bad about him getting fired.

— They said it would be over by now.
Yeah. No fireworks this year.
But September?
That’s what they say.
— Not much left in the deep freeze.
Better order some.
Look at this. Can’t they arrest them for gouging?
When can we get it?
— They said California was supposed to do well.
It was. People got tired. And the models, well…
I guess.
It’s unreal. LA. And I thought NYC was bad.
— They said it would only be 100,000 across the country.
That was back then. There was a range.
But how. It doesn’t seem possible.
Country’s maybe 300 million or so.

— Did you see the fatality rate? 2.57%.
They say maybe 100 million cases by the time we’re through.
100 million times 2.57%.
Over 2.5 million. A couple years though.
— 2.5 million? But… how can that even be?
Math. It’s hard to get. How the thing spreads.
But millions of people? Their families…
One person infects two. The monster doesn’t care.
— Verizon just dinged us again.
They said they weren’t going to cut anyone off.
I’ve been afraid to look. We don’t have much left in…
We have the house.
— This can’t be happening. Not here. It’s the 21^st century.
Everyone’s doing the best they can. 
They say if we started earlier. Are we okay, here in the house?
Should be. I hope. Should be.
— CNBC says the market’s coming back.
I heard. Elections. Incumbents always say that.
Well, it is, sort of. They say the heat killed the thing.
Slows it down. It’ll be back.

— Why aren’t you and I fighting?
Too tired. Besides, we’re stuck.
I still love you, I guess.
I know.
— They say there’s going to be a baby boom at Christmas.
A new boomer generation.
I wonder what their life will be like.
I wonder.
— You were right. It’s coming back.
Like 1918. 
But the schools just opened. And the stores.
Back then, 1918, Fall was a lot worse than Spring.
— But things were getting back to normal.
At least we’re better prepared. The hospitals and everything.
But they tore down the spare ones, the convention center.
Yeah, they did.
— Market’s collapsing.
Again? How bad?
Worse than 1929. Not that we care.
What are they going to do?

— Boss just called. They’re closing down.
But how? They were so big.
I’ve got my resume out.
Good… Good. That’s good.
— The gangs… Downtown looks pretty bad.
We’re safe here.
Okay.
We’re safe. Real safe.
— But this wasn’t supposed to happen. All… this.
We’ll be fine.
Their house is so small.
And your mom and me, we…
— Dad called. Mom’s sick.
When?
Yesterday. She’s in ICU. They didn’t want to worry us.
We can’t go.
— I’m so sorry. She and I… I never meant…
She knew. She was more worried about dad.
Me too.
Marsha called. House is closing in 30 days.
— I wish we didn’t have to leave so much behind.
We’ve got the important things.
Still.
He needs us. And we need a… we’ll work it out. 

— Merry Christmas.
Sorry. I would’ve gotten you something…
You’re here. We’re here.
Mike says there might be an opening. They’re interviewing.
— I’m so tired.
Remember when they said 15 days?
Last March. Yeah.
I’d say they lied but maybe they just really didn’t get it.
— Some did. The doctors.
They didn’t want to hear it.
No words.
And a lot of the country. Business as usual.
— You heard from Mike? Why didn’t you tell me?
Last Wednesday.
What are we going to do? There’s almost nothing left.
Dad’s hiding it — his pension’s gone. Company’s dead.
— They’re calling it the Valentine vaccine.
Finally. Finally.
It’s early. They said back then it would be 12-18 months.
I suppose. When do they say can we get it?
— It’s snowing.
Huh. Looks pretty bad.
Dad’s got a snowblower.
Wonder if it works.
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